Sources close to junta said generals could only allow forming the regional and local political parties. Without allowing national party like NLD, SPDC would be able to maintain its strength and wedge the national party as it did in 1988. Many political veterans and activists have researched and discussed the political party formation but unlike to have a national political party, Rangoon observer said.
Junta would allow second and third line political figures to form the political party that can secure no more than ten seats if there would be an election in 2010. Junta prefers more ethnic political parties to win in the election that automatically blocking any kind of national party.
Most of the single party would gain utmost five to twenty seats at the parliament and relatively lower than 25% from the army appointed MPs. Junta reportedly encouraged ethnic ceasefire groups to take a political opportunity and raise their regional concerns within parliament. Junta main intention is to break apart the opposition strength into several voices.
UWSA, SSA, KNPLF, KIO are now yet to decide whether election could provide their ethnic interest. New constitutions would only detour their objectives; greater autonomy, holding arms and having dialogue with regime. They would then turn under the SPDC's new political platform in terms of accepting the new election.
On the other hand, many Burmese veteran politicians seemed this election as an opportunity that they missed in 1990 election while people voted NLD for one party voice to challenge the regime. Secondly, they considered this election would not allow the NLD or NLD would not join because of unable to trade with 1990 election legitimacy. More importantly, most of the veteran politicians have lack of grassroots' support and resources. SPDC knows well about major dilemma of the new parties.
Photo credit: NLD LA Youth
