SPDC has been getting political comfort zone and free ride since it arrested Daw Aung San Suu Kyi in 2002. However, major challenges came after junta announced the referendum result in May 2008. A new Constitution would not allow two armies within nation state. Unlike other ceasefire groups, UWSA has prepared to face the regime's one sided game, source said.
During last year, regime sent a strong signal to all ceasefire groups that SPDC would not tolerate any existing independent army under new constitution. BDD learnt that many ethnic ceasefire groups had worked to hold the arm or self-defense mechanism under the new constitution.
Another SPDC's reality is post Nargis cyclone changed the relations with the regional supporters. SPDC lost understanding from neighboring countries when it failed to manage the natural disaster. This made more difficult to deal with ceasefire groups and having a new election.
"SPDC would use more diplomatic channels to deal with UWSA than military option" source close to junta said. This makes more space for the SPDC and it will provide final decision for lesser space for them. Distrust between SPDC and UWSA mounted in 2008 and it seems continue.
However, USDA would need more than what SPDC offered. It believes to push a freedom of former PM Gen. Khin Nyunt along with their autonomy and independency, one of the sources said. UWSA is now playing national politics and it will have part of the country's political landscape besides maintaining the ceasefire agreement.
This latest relations with UWSA, SPDC showed its failure of centralization and army is essential to maintain peace and stability. SPDC has more complicated challenges; current generals were being humiliated by UWSA's move. Message is crystal clear, Wa leaders only honor Khin Nyunt but not general Ye Myint, and if Than Shwe himself comes, they will honor as they did Khin Nyunt in early 1990s.
Senior general Than Shwe has to decide whether UWSA would get more political space and rest of the ethnic ceasefire groups need more. He might marginalize NLD in terms of arresting more its members, but facing UWSA is a different case. How many soldiers should be sacrificed and losing a support from China?
