By Larry Jagan
Mizzima News (www.mizzima.com)
June 7, 2007 - Beijing's support for the Burmese junta has strengthened over the past few months as China's leaders see Rangoon as a corner stone of their strategy towards South-East Asia . The recent trip by the acting Burmese Prime Minister, Thein Sein to Kunming, Beijing and Shanghai underlines the new relationship which has emerged. Both countries are intent on strengthening their bilateral trade and investment ties as well as developing social and cultural exchange programmes.
But on the political front, irritations remain – with Beijing quietly pressing Rangoon to introduce concrete political reform as soon as possible. "It is no coincidence that the Generals announced the planned resumption of the National Convention in mid-July just as the junta's Prime Minister arrived in south-western China," the Thailand-based independent Burmese analyst, Win Min told Mizzima.
The National Convention will have drawn up a new constitution by the end of the year, Than Shwe told a senior Chinese diplomat earlier this year during a visit to Rangoon . It would seem that the sudden decision to move forward on the roadmap is a gesture towards Beijing . Thein Sein, who is also the key person overseeing the National Convention is expected to brief senior Chinese leaders on the constitution drafting process and the subsequent referendum, according to a senior Burmese government source.
He is also likely to outline Than Shwe's planned sweeping changes in the military command and the shake-up in the Cabinet, the source told Mizzima. "The Chinese have always been informed ahead of time of any significant planned changes, with the exception of course of the arrest of the former Prime Minister and intelligence chief, Khin Nyunt," Win Min said.
At the time Khin Nunt was Beijing's main man in the regime, often being called Burma's Deng Xiaoping – something which also angered Than Shwe. Now the Chinese have broadened their contacts with the regime – maintaining close and cordial relations with all three top Burmese generals – Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Thura Shwe Mann.
For years the Chinese leaders have feared the possibility of Maung Aye succeeding the senior general as Burma's top leader for they regarded him as pro-India and relatively anti-China. This attitude has changed in the wake of a secret mission by Maung Aye to Kunming and Beijing in the middle of last year. He was hosted by Chinese military commanders and an understanding was struck at the time, according to a senior Chinese government source in Beijing.
"Military men understand each other and talk the same language," the Chinese source told Mizzima. "They sat down together, talked and joked, as they drank strong liquor and got drunk together," he added.
Senior Chinese party representatives from Beijing also told ethnic leaders meeting in Kunming recently that they did not have a problem with Maung Aye.
Many Burmese activists have long feared that Beijing supported Rangoon unquestioningly, but this has not been the case, especially in the past. China's leaders have consistently feared that Burma's military junta lacked real legitimacy and could collapse over night, leaving Beijing powerless and its military and economic investment in the regime worthless, according to a senior party cadre who deals foreign policy issues.
China's greatest fear remains that Burma is extremely unstable, and poses a security risk, especially along its southern border. More than a million Chinese, farmers, workers and businessmen have crossed into Burma in the last ten years and are working and living there. The Chinese authorities fear that any upheaval in Burma would result in a mass exodus of Chinese back across the border, resulting in increased industrial and social unrest in their sensitive border regions.
China's other concern is that Burma's economy, far from expanding and producing business and investment opportunities for Chinese businesses, especially those based in bordering Yunnan province, the economy is actually contracting. Two decades ago, China's leaders and economists saw that the development of their relatively backward south-western provinces would rely on expanding bilateral trade with its southern neighbours, particularly Burma. So far Burma has not fulfilled the early promise.
In past few years Chinese businessmen and government enterprises have boosted their investment in Burma – Lashio, Mandalay and Muse are virtually Chinese cities now. Even in Rangoon , over the last two years Chinese business has expanded enormously. They are also involved in the building of a special tax-free export zone around the Rangoon port. "The number of Chinese restaurants in Rangoon has grown and the quality of the food served there is far better than in Bangkok," a Thai-Chinese businessman, told Mizzima.
A few years ago, when things looked bad for the economy, Chinese workers and businessmen left Rangoon, according to a Chinese-Burmese businessman, who owns one of the best-known Chinese restaurants in Rangoon. "The clientele – mainly Chinese from the mainland – steadily collapsed; now it's impossible to get a table without a booking and every evening there is a long waiting list for reservations," he said.
For the Chinese authorities Burma has also become a strategic transit point for goods produced in southern-China. They want to transport these by road to the Rangoon port for shipment to India , the Middle East and eventually Europe . Repair work is underway on Burma's antiquated internal road system that links southern China , through Mandalay to Rangoon . Now there are plans to build a road through northern Burma to Northeast India. The Chinese have agreed to finance the construction of this highway using 40,000 Chinese construction workers, according to Asian diplomatic sources in Rangoon. Some 20,000 would remain after the work is completed to do maintenance work on the road.
"When this happens the northern region of Burma will be swamped by the Chinese – government officials, workers, lorry drivers and businessmen – it will no longer be Burma," according to a senior western diplomat-based in Bangkok who has followed Burmese affairs for more than a decade.
The Chinese authorities have decided that the only way to ensure their existing investment in Burma, is to strengthen it. "More than six months ago, China's leaders sanctioned increased economic and business ties with Burma ," according to a Chinese government official. "This will be in all areas, but especially the energy sector," he added
China already has major oil and gas concessions in western Burma , and is planning overland pipelines to bring it to southern China . The Chinese have also agreed to finance and build several major hydro-electric power stations in northern Burma.
Trade is also a high priority on Prime Minister Thein Sein's current trip to China. Many major deals are being signed, according to an Asian diplomat, based in Rangoon . Many of Burma 's leading businessmen are accompanying the Prime Minister on this trip.
Despite some irritation last year at Burma's failure to move towards political and economic reform, China 's leaders realized that Burma was its strongest ally in South East Asia. For some time Beijing as eyed suspiciously the growing American influence, especially in its traditional backyard – Cambodia and Vietnam , and to some extent in Laos as well. China 's leaders now fear that in Thailand the opposition Democrat party is going to sweep back into power if elections are held according to plan in December. The Chinese also see the Democrats as avowedly pro-US and have already threatened to overhaul or rescind the Free Trade agreement between Bangkok and Beijing .
Their only trustworthy and truly anti-American ally in the region is Burma. So strategically the junta has become increasingly important to Beijing and its relationship with South-East Asia as a whole. While there may still be irritations between the junta and China's leaders, neither side is going to allow them to endanger what in the last six months has become a very special relationship. It is one where Beijing is likely to increase giving Rangoon all that it wants.
Larry Jagan is a freelance journalist and Burma specialist based in Bangkok. He was formerly the News and Current Affairs editor for Asia and the Pacific at the BBC World Service.
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