Foreign dignitaries make a beeline to Myanmar. Some meet Aung San Suu Kyi, some don’t, depending on the diplomatic double standard they practise. At the same time, a series of bomb blasts rattles the country, symptomatic of a civil war threatening to spill over to cities from ethnic conflicts. There are more political and diplomatic intricacies than meets the eye in the recent spurt of activity in Myanmar that makes international headlines.
On June 24, four explosions rocked the capital city Naypyitaw; Mandalay, the country’s second-biggest city after the former capital Yangon; and Pyin Oo Lwin, a town 72km north of Mandalay. That Pyin Oo Lwin is a garrison town which is home to four military institutes, including the elite Defence Services Academy, adds much more significance to the new round of violence that has been uncommon ever since the regime signed a ceasefire agreement with ethnic rebels in 1994.
There have also been about half-a-dozen bomb blasts in Myanmar cities, including Naypyitaw and the Kachin state capital Myitkyina, in the past few weeks.
While who to blame for the violence is anybody’s guess, analysts point a finger at the serious fighting that broke out in the north of the country this month in Kachin state near the border with China. The government has as usual blamed rebels who have been fighting for autonomy since the country won independence in 1948.
Opposition sources tell me that so many loose ends in the regime’s accusations raise the suspicion of a grand political strategy. They say the explosions don’t bode well for the opposition and fear that the regime would not hesitate to use them as a pretext to unleash a wave of crackdown on democracy leaders.
“The Burmese government could use any kind of excuse to unleash suppressive measure against the opposition,” says one source, exiled opposition leader U Nyo Ohn Myint. “This new round of bomb attacks is controversial as the rebel Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has not claimed responsibility.”
The sources suspect the blasts were orchestrated and stage-managed, as there are clinching evidences that government forces had sealed off the areas even before the bombs went off.
The government’s claim of launching an assault on KIA rebels to defend two hydropower plants being built to provide power to China also seems to be nothing more than a pack of lies. “The only objective of the Tatmadaw (army) in launching attacks on KIA is just to protect its members and an important hydropower project of the nation,” says a report in the government’s New Light of Myanmar newspaper.
But such claims fly in the face of the Kachin Independence Organisation’s (KIO) own memorandum of understanding with the Chinese on the latter’s business interest in the region. According to my sources, the Chinese company building the Tar Pein hydropower plant had agreed to pay 10 million yuan as road tax to the KIO, which maintains an extralegal bureaucracy in Kachin State and has exclusive control over pockets of territory along the Chinese border. The Chinese would pay another 60 million yuan to build a new road.
“It’s true. Both the KIO and the Thein Sein regime have enjoyed these Chinese investments. The KIO has established some business understanding with the Chinese and have been receiving profits before the current crisis,” says Ohn Myint, quoting Kachin leaders who met him a couple of days ago. With such lucrative deals in force, it’s impossible to reason that the KIA would dare rub the Chinese the wrong way.
Strategically speaking, China, which is building oil and gas pipelines through its neighbour to improve energy security, would also want peace to prevail across the border. “I do not think China wanted the regime to crush the ethnic minorities as peace and stability would be more profitable for their national interest. Six major hydropower dams, jade mines, and timber and logging businesses are chiefly controlled by the Chinese and they will only think about their long-term economic interest,” says Ohn Myint.
Beijing, in fact, prefer “Bhutan-style” status for Myanmar’s major ethnic groups as it would be easier to do business with them than the regime which, according to sources, is widely divided on the issue of granting the big brother a free hand in internal wheeling and dealing.
So the latest war on the Kachin rebels seems to be a smoke screen created by a conflict of business interest involving certain elements within the regime and the Chinese companies, as evidenced by the recent tirade by the CEO of the Seven Day media group, a staunch supporter of the regime, against huge Chinese investments in Myanmar.
“But then, I think the war turned ugly after government forces broke the prisoner of war exchange norms, by torturing to death the KIA’s lance corporal Chan Yein of Regiment 15 and delivering his mutilated body to the rebels,” says Ohn Myint.
China, faced with a surge in Karen refugees, has urged both sides to resolve their differences through negotiations. From around 10,000 refugees massing on the border, they had reportedly let in women, elders and children.
But China did not set up temporary shelters for the war refugees as they did in August 2009 during the Kokeng crisis. The Chinese are confronted with a major dilemma: While Beijing wants to please the Burmese regime; its Yunnan provincial authorities face the reality of the refugee crisis and want to see peace and stability on the border.
The war seemed to have served as a double-barrelled gun, also sabotaging a nationwide political tour Suu Kyi was planning to undertake. “She has no assurance from the regime so far that there would be no copycat incident of the 2003 ambush on the iconic leader and her convoy. So she has decided not to make any ‘out of town’ trip until Martyrs’ Day on July 19,” says Ohn Myint.
In the meantime, there was a slew of visitors to Myanmar, including US Senator John McCain, Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna, a European Union delegation led by Robert Cooper of Britain and UN envoy Vijay Nambiar, ostensibly to keep the regime engaged.
On the outside, the visits by foreign leaders seem more like a fact-finding mission exploring the extent of change under the new civilian regime. The warm handshakes suggest they are keen to put any bad blood behind them and find out the possibilities of mediation between the regime and the Lady.
But behind the veil of diplomacy, sources say the US seems to be more interested in getting to the bottom of rumours revolving around the former junta’s nuclear ambition. Though Myanmar informed McCain that it has halted a peaceful nuclear programmes supported by Russia, a revelation by the New York Times that the US Navy as recently as this month intercepted a North Korean shipment carrying missile technology to Myanmar, obviously keeps the West on tender hooks.
The NYT report said after several days of using naval power and diplomatic pressure, the US was able to force Pyongyang to recall the ship, the MV Light, a few weeks ago. A similar shipment suspected of carrying missile parts successfully made it from North Korea to Myanmar last year before the US had time to interfere.
Though the UN says there appeared to be no compelling evidence Myanmar had been developing a secret nuclear programme with the help of North Korea, there has been a growing fear that North Korea has been trading missile technology and supplies with the country's generals.
Quoting a defector from Myanmar, an army major and deputy commander of a top-secret nuclear facility who escaped the country with thousands of files detailing a nuclear and missile programme, ABC News reported that with the help of North Korea, Myanmar has acquired components for a nuclear weapons programme, including technology for uranium enrichment and long-range missiles.
"The purpose is they really want a bomb. That is their main objective," ABC News quoted defector Sai Thein Win as saying. He claims to have visited the installations and attended meetings at which the new technology was demonstrated.
The UN suggests “extreme caution” to prevent the North Korean-Myanmar cooperation from becoming proliferation, as the former junta had already purchased conventional arms and missile technology from North Korea in violation of United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874. Reports suggest these shipments could have contained nuclear weapons-related materials.
Secret US cables released by Wikileaks in December also indicate that Burma might be using North Korea's help to build a nuclear programme. US officials say North Korea has used Myanmar ports and airstrips in its cat-and-mouse game to transfer arms and contraband to third countries, including Iran.
Are the bomb blasts and the interception of the North Koren ship headed to Myanmar some isolated incidents? Analysts fear that if Kachin or other armed ethnic groups are actually behind the current explosions, these would pose a serious challenge to the fledgling civilian-led government and serve as a reminder of what’s in store for the impoverished South-east Asian state.
Source: Dubai Daily
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