Published on May 16, 2011
One day before the 18th Asean summit began in Jakarta, the US sent an urgent message to Indonesia - the Asean chair - Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines simultaneously saying now was the time to push for real progress in Burma otherwise it would be difficult to envisage any US president attending the East Asia Summit there in 2014. The message was a reminder to Asean that reforms in Burma and the choice of the Asean chair would impact on the overall scheme of US-Asean relations, which have been strengthened further since Washington acceded to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation.
Interestingly, the US concern helped Asean leaders to refocus and subsequently delay their decision regarding Naypyidaw's request to head the grouping it joined in 1997. At the end of the summit, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono issued a statement saying that Asean agreed in principle to give Burma the chair. It was a wait-and-see attitude even though the whole summit was overshadowed by the Thai-Cambodian border dispute.
There are a few things that the new government under President Thein Sein needs to do between now and the Asean foreign ministers' meeting in July to convince Asean that Burma, as the 2014 chair, won't harm the group's credibility.
In the message to Asean, Washington also pressed for progress on key issues including the release of political prisoners, nuclear non-proliferation efforts and political dialogue with ethnic groups and Aung San Suu Kyi. Obviously, these are conditions that the dialogue partners have highlighted and used as justification to continue current sanctions.
Now action is incumbent on Indonesia's Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa, who has agreed to visit Burma in coming weeks. There will be an opportunity for him to discuss further what future reforms are in the pipeline in Naypyidaw. His visit is important as it will form a rationale on whether to give a green light to a Burmese chair at July's foreign ministerial meeting. Most importantly, the Asean chair also wants to share updates and assessments with its dialogue partners to provide a raison d'etre for any decision for Burma to become the chair in 2014.
Earlier, Asean Secretary-General Dr. Surin Pitsuwan reiterated that views from dialogue partners must be taken into consideration because they would impact on their future participation in several Asean activities. Since the US and EU are high-valued dialogue partners of Asean, their concerns cannot be taken for granted and must also be met this time. Otherwise, it would be hard to achieve proper cooperation. While there have been growing calls for an end to sanctions and other restrictions following the setting up of a "civilian" government in Burma at the end of March, Western countries and the United Nations continue urging the new administration to improve its human rights record and move on with further reforms.
For the time being, the participation of Western leaders at the inaugural expanded East Asia Summit in October in Bali has been secured. President Barack Obama has promised to come to Indonesia to take part after the conclusion of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in Honolulu. That much is clear. What has made the choice of the incoming Asean chair intriguing is the possibility that leaders from the US and other Western countries may not attend Asean summits and forums. For instance, at next year's EAS in Cambodia, which will be held almost at the same time as the US presidential election in November, it remains to be seen who will represent the US president. In other words, who's coming to town?
Therefore, the prospect of having Burma as the 2014 chair poses a dilemma for Asean. Laos was first to express support for Burma during the senior official meeting ahead of the summit. It was under the Lao leadership in 2004 that Burma declined to accept the chair. Therefore, Laos was obliged to back Burma as it promised to do so seven years ago. Singapore and Malaysia, who voiced reservations earlier at the special ministerial meeting in Bangkok early in April, did not push their position in subsequent ministerial meetings in Jakarta.
In regard to rotation of the Asean chair, it must be done in alphabetical order, meaning it should be Laos in 2015 and Malaysia in 2016. But Malaysia insists on standing firm to chair Asean in 2015 - because it will be the pivotal year in shaping the future of the Asean Community beyond that date. Without Burma slotting into 2014, it would be problematic. However, with Laos offering a quick swap with Burma, the issue has been resolved.
It will be the second swap as Indonesia switched its turn with Brunei two years ago. During the 16th Asean summit in Hanoi in April 2010, leaders stressed that the swap would not set any precedent because of the need to keep alphabetical rotation of the Asean chairmanship in accordance with Article 31, paragraph 1. The nitty-gritty of procedural politics in Asean eventually played out for the benefit of Naypyidaw. After all, Asean is a rule-based organisation, is it not?
As the Thein Sein government enters its sixth week, Asean along with the international community is watching closely for substantial reforms that will promote national unity and reconciliation, good governance and transparency, among other noble aims. Can Burma deliver? We will find out very soon how it will respond.
Source: The Nation
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