Sunday, January 23, 2011

Burma sanctions stay - for now

Calls are growing for an end to Western sanctions against Burma, but experts say a shift in policy is unlikely without progress on human rights and the support of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.

Suu Kyi's release in November following Burma's first election in 20 years has reignited debate over the effectiveness of the punitive measures, enforced by the United States and the European Union in response to the junta's human rights abuses.

"There's a lot of internal debate going on among policymakers and a previously established and longstanding consensus is increasingly seeming brittle," a Bangkok-based Western diplomat said.

Critics of the policy say sanctions, which have largely kept Western companies out of a resource-rich corner of Asia, are hindering development in what is one of the world's poorest nations.

But the iron-fisted regime must still provide "something that is considered substantial, a step in the right direction", before the West -- highly critical of the election -- will remove them, said Burma analyst Aung Naing Oo.

Two of the main pro-democracy parties which took part in the November election have called for the lifting of all sanctions on the grounds that they do not benefit the wider population.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which includes Burma, and a group of the country's main ethnic political parties have also urged an end to the measures, ahead of the new parliament's opening on January 31.

"It will be difficult to ignore all these calls for a change of policy," said the diplomat, who did not want to be named.

Even Suu Kyi appears to have softened her stance and her party is reviewing its position on sanctions after years of firmly supporting them.

Suu Kyi told AFP in an interview last month that she wanted dialogue with the junta on sanctions.

"I don't look at sanctions as a bargaining chip but as a way of trying to improve the situation," she said.

Experts say the backing of Suu Kyi, easily Burma's most influential figure in the West, would probably be crucial for an end to the measures.

"I am not sure if the EU and United States will be able to lift the sanctions without the input from Aung San Suu Kyi," said Maung Zarni, a Burma research fellow at the London School of Economics.

"Her views are considered reflective of public opinion."

Suu Kyi was freed from house arrest on November 13 after spending 15 of the past 21 years in detention.

Sanctions advocates say that five decades of economic mismanagement under military rule are to blame for the hardships in Burma -- also known as Burma -- rather than the measures themselves, which are designed to weaken the regime and its cronies.

The United States bans trade with companies tied to the junta in Burma and also freezes such firms' assets and blocks international loans to the state.

The European Union also has sanctions freezing assets and businesses of junta figures as well as blacklisting their travel, but it has continued some trade and investment such as oil.

A spokeswoman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said the European Union was "following the situation in Burma very closely...(but) wants to see what the government will do," notably in terms of human rights.

Despite the restrictions on Western businesses, Asian companies, especially from China, India, Thailand and South Korea, have overlooked the political situation and human rights abuses to invest in Burma's ample natural treasures.

Zarni said the real push for lifting sanctions was coming from Western investors who "feel sanctions have deprived them", and whose arguments are "couched in the language of (the) public well-being of Burmese people".

"Many investors, especially in natural resource exploitation such as oil, gas, mining, and timber, know that they will make fortunes once they are able to rush in and compete," he said.

Critics of the measures say the willingness of other Asian countries to invest without conditions is precisely why sanctions are not working.

Burma economics expert Sean Turnell said the West was likely to face pressure to reduce broad economic sanctions -- the import and investment bans -- while maintaining targeted financial restrictions.

He said the United States, which launched a dialogue with Burma's rulers in 2009, would want progress on human rights, particularly the release of Burma's 2,200 political prisoners.

The West would also want to see more concrete reform on both political and economic fronts, suggested Turnell, of Macquarie University in Australia.

"Many people did seriously expect a raft of more liberal economic policies right after the election but that hasn't happened yet," he said.

Source: Bangkok Post

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