‘As Long as it Catches Mice’

By MOE ZAW OO
Thursday, September 24, 2009



The US policy review on Burma is coming to an end. Basically, the policy will not change significantly although, as expected, an “engagement” policy will be integrated into the current policy of economic sanctions.

The political opposition has expected such changes since the Obama administration took office with its campaign slogan of “Change We Need.”

We were aware of the corner stones of a new US foreign policy described as “diplomacy and development,” as outlined by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during her Senate confirmation hearings.

The reason for the protracted wait to declare the new policy was the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Clinton had given earlier hints of the new policy during a press conference in Indonesia on Feb. 18, saying, "Clearly the path we have taken in imposing sanctions hasn't influenced the Burmese junta, [but] reaching out and trying to engage them has not influenced them, either."

But this week at the United Nations, the new policy was clearly stated: "To help achieve democratic reform, we will be engaging directly with Burmese authorities."

US engagement differs somewhat from the policies adopted by other governments, especially Asean member countries.

In remarks Clinton made on the sidelines of a meeting with Asean foreign ministers. Clinton said, "It is critical that she [Suu Kyi)] be released from the persecution that she has been under. And if she were released that would open up opportunity, at least for my country, to expand relations, including investment, in Burma."

It appears clear that US policy will place special emphasis on the release of Suu Kyi and other political prisoners.

After the Sept. 23 meeting of the UN Group of Friends on Burma in New York, Clinton told reporters: "Lifting sanction now would send the wrong signal, and we will maintain our existing sanctions until we see concrete progress towards reform. But we will be willing to discuss the easing of sanctions in response to significant actions on the part of Burma's generals that address the core human rights and democracy issues that are inhibiting Burma's progress."

Undoubtedly, the generals will have to show progress on core human rights and democracy issues, especially as they relate to the 2010 elections.

Some useful benchmarks have already been set by the National League for Democracy (NLD) during its conference in April: The release of all political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, a review of the Constitution and an inclusive, free and fair election under international supervision.
In New York, Clinton further reiterated the US position: "The Burmese election should not be dismissed at this time. At the same time, we should continue discussions with the Burmese authorities to emphasize that the international community will only recognize the planned 2010 elections as a positive step to the extent that the Burmese authorities allow full participation by members of Burma's opposition and ethnic minority groups."
U Win Tin, an influential NLD leader, in a recent article in the Washington Post, clearly said that as things now stand the junta has created the conditions for a one-sided election.

"Under the circumstances imposed by the military's Constitution, the election will be a sham," he said.

At this point, the international community is somewhat divided on how to ensure the election is fair and free. The NLD conditions should be stressed by all concerned governments and groups.

Another new aspect of US policy is the likelihood of significant humanitarian assistance.

Engagement together with humanitarian assistance will lead to an interesting “carrot and stick” approach, in addition to the future prospect of easing sanctions in return for concrete steps toward democracy and improved human rights.

In a defense of pragmatism, Deng Xiaoping once proclaimed, "It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice."

Maybe this new cat will catch the mice. The Burmese people will grasp a thin reed to avoid drowning.

However, clear benchmarks are needed to achieve real progress. In the past 20 years, the junta has learned how to avoid the cats, black or white.

Past experience shows that the Asean policy of “constructive engagement” had no affect on the Burmese junta.

We hope this new US effort will achieve some positive results for the long suffering Burmese people.

Moe Zaw Oo is secretary of the National League for Democracy (Liberated Area) Foreign Affairs Committee.

Source: Irrawaddy News