Aug. 16, 2009
By WALL STREET JOURNAL Staff Reporters
U.S. Senator Jim Webb's visit to Myanmar to meet with the reclusive leader of its military regime is casting renewed light on Washington's frustrations in dealing with a country which seldom responds to tough economic sanctions.
Sen. Webb is an outspoken advocate of easing sanctions on Myanmar, which is also known as Burma, arguing that refusing trade drives Myanmar into the arms of authoritarian neighbors such as China, which has been ramping up investment in the resource-rich country in recent years. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, last month offered a carrot at a regional security conference in Thailand by saying that if Myanmar frees detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi it could open the way for the U.S. allow investments in the country, which Washington currently targets with stiff economic sanctions.
On Saturday, Sen. Webb became the first U.S. political leader to meet Senior General Than Shwe, and was also allowed to meet with Ms. Suu Kyi to discuss the sanctions dilemma, among other topics, and raising tentative hopes among some exiled opposition figures that the military government may be signaling a willingness to soften its stance towards her. "We had a very long discussion about when (sanctions) work and when they don't work," Sen. Webb said at a news conference in Bangkok on Sunday.
Sen. Webb also secured the release of a U.S. citizen, John Yettaw, who on Aug. 11 was sentenced to seven years in jail for breaking the terms of Ms. Suu Kyi's house arrest by swimming uninvited to her lakeside mansion in Yangon, the nation's largest city. Mr. Yettaw arrived in Bangkok with Sen. Webb on Sunday and is receiving medical treatment for a series of recent seizures.
Speculation is growing among some dissidents that Ms. Suu Kyi is coming close to saying that there is a case for easing sanctions on Myanmar after years of advocating economic isolation. After realizing that sanctions have done little to dislodge the generals, "she wants to comprise," says Nyo Ohn Myint, a former close aide to Ms. Suu Kyi and a foreign affairs spokesperson for her political party, the National League for Democracy. "We need to sacrifice whatever it takes for the country."
Sen. Webb chose not to disclose whether Ms. Suu Kyi made a statement on sanctions during their discussions, saying she wanted to wait for a united statement from her National League for Democracy.
Still, Sen. Webb's private mission to Myanmar – while approved by the White House – has caused concern among U.S. conservatives and some Burmese dissident groups that worry the military regime will use his visit to improve its international image without having to give up any meaningful ground to its critics. Many analysts had already expected the Myanmar government to deport Mr. Yettaw, for instance, noting that the country has a history of releasing political prisoners when it wants to curry favor with the outside world. Opponents of the regime note that such moves are rarely followed by meaningful political reform in the country.
In his meeting with Gen. Than Shwe in the remote administrative capital of Naypiydaw, Sen. Webb also requested the government to overturn its decision to sentence Ms. Suu Kyi to 18 months of additional house arrest for the incident involving Mr. Yettaw and allow her to play a political role – a concession that would be the likely linchpin of any substantial improvement in relations between the U.S. and Myanmar.
Sen. Webb told a news conference in Bangkok that the country's military leadership didn't appear to understand the depth of international opposition to the decision to detain Ms. Suu Kyi, which would effectively sideline her during the run up to national elections scheduled in 2010. He said the release of Mr. Yettaw, was a gesture "which we should be grateful for and hopefully build upon" and said China had an obligation to use its economic influence in Myanmar to push for Ms. Suu Kyi's release, too.
Mr. Nyo Ohn Myint, the National League for Democracy's foreign affairs spokesman, says he believes the regime was taken aback by the scale of criticism it has faced and might be looking for a way to start exploratory talks with Ms. Suu Kyi.
"It's too premature to say this is very positive," he says of Sen. Webb's meeting with Ms. Suu Kyi. But many people in Myanmar will interpret the meeting as a way for Senior General Than Shwe to communicate an easing of tensions with Ms. Suu Kyi. "It could break the ice," Mr. Nyo Ohn Myint says.
With no credible opposition inside Myanmar and military control safeguarded by its constitution, next year's elections are expected to return a military-backed government. The last elections in Myanmar were held in 1990 and won by Ms. Suu Kyi's party in a landslide. The military ignored the results and locked up many lawmakers in the following years and forced others into exile.
The reclusive military's strategy is difficult to know. High-ranking generals rarely give interviews to Western media and typically make official statements through local state-controlled newspapers and television.
Some exiled Myanmar opposition leaders would like to see the U.S. and others further isolate the junta with tougher sanctions. They point out that the government has shown signs of a political thaw in the past – including during the mid-1990s – but these periods were followed by army crackdowns on liberalizers and against pro-democracy figures, such as the recent extension of Ms. Suu Kyi's house arrest.
The government also has continued to crush public acts of dissent. In September 2007, the military cracked down hard on protests against rising food prices led by Buddhist monks, killing at least 10 people. In the absence of Ms. Suu Kyi's release, U.S. policy to Myanmar is likely to continue to include an element of pressure alongside efforts to push dialogue, analysts say. The European Union last week ratcheted up its economic sanctions against Myanmar and the U.S. recently renewed similar measures.
Source: WSJ
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