Monday, August 18, 2008

Intelligence: Barraging or Compromising

Regime hardliners and moderates alike reviewing current NCUB’s initiative of Credential Challenge against the regime at UN, said close regime associate.

Rebutting for NCUB, they are formulating to secure their credibility and forced legitimacy at the referendum on May 10th 2008. Now the SPDC has to reduce the pressures, reviewing whether they would face the UN unseat campaign or compromise with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

Regime’s seven-step roadmap must be smooth and peaceful after considered top 88 generation leaders, monks, political activists and NLD activists are being detained or jailed. However, regime also faces dilemma of social and economic downturn, and Nargis cyclone impact on the other hand.

In terms of facing reality, regime needs international assistance as well as recognition of their legitimacy but hardly to get approval without compromising with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. The pressure of unseating the SPDC at UN is not only a major threat for them but UN, ASEAN and China are being indirectly pressured, close SPDC associate said.

They were eager to know relations between NCUB and NCGUB-US based exile government would or wouldn’t join the unseating campaign, source close to regime informed. One of the NCGUB ministers was monitored for this challenge.

They seemed to be very serious about NCGUB would join this campaign because of military affairs security officers were eager to know one of the ministers of NCGUB, two sources claimed.

UN office also closely monitors the stance of NLD for unseating SPDC, it became a serious agenda for UN if oppositions will bring the issue as reality. The UN mandate is to narrow down the differences between pro-democracy groups and military generals.

Normally, NLD and other pro-democracy groups requested for having a dialogue with NLD, reviewing constitutions and freeing political prisoners included Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. But this time what NCUB’s approach is different and which is pressuring and not requesting or begging, said regime’s source.

Thus, UN, ASEAN, China and SPDC might lose their wait and see strategy and plans to allow regime to lead the country if campaign’s momentum becomes increasing.