The Nation
Published on February 21, 2008
The generals promise elections but continue to buy time and tell lies to the international community
It should surprise nobody that one of the world's pariah states has showed its true colours again. At the Singapore meeting of Asean foreign ministers, Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win shamelessly told his Asean counterparts that the opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, would not be allowed to take part in the election scheduled for 2010 because she had a foreign husband. This is a sham indeed. But then again, one is dealing with the Burmese junta. The international community should have learned the lesson that when dealing with this ruthless gang, it has to be tough, consistent and unwavering. The junta senses the cracks in the Western coalition.
The generals announced a referendum on the new constitution for May, but they don't care how the world reacts. What they care about is their own plan at their own pace. They know the system well, playing one power against another. Burma happens to play realpolitik much better than any other developing country. Now that the US is amid its presidential primaries, the world's most powerful nation is powerless to take action and has no new initiatives.
UN chief, Ban Ki-moon has yet to prove that Burma is on his priority list. He has yet to make a commitment to visit Burma as a sign that he is serious about the situation in the country. Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari is useless because he is playing to Burma's game plan to buy time. Moreover, key Burma supporters such as China and India remain steadfast in their support of the regime. Although India has done much to stop selling small arms and ammunition, China has yet to demonstrate its international responsibility by engaging Burma and Asean. But there are increased efforts to link the Olympics and the Burmese crisis, and Beijing has to be careful.
Although the controversy surrounding Burma is not on the scale of the human calamity in Darfur, Sudan, pressure to highlight the plight of the Burmese people and the apathy from China affects the latter's reputation.
Asean has to act. Singaporean Foreign Minister George Yeo hasn't said much, except that Burma's position "is not in keeping with the times". As chair of Asean, he could do more to use peer pressure against Burma.
However, this is easier said than done because the newer members of Asean like Vietnam and Laos, and to a certain degree, Cambodia, have become backers of Burma, especially since Rangoon came out with its election time frame. The conventional wisdom is that the junta should work things out without pressure from Asean and abroad.
Asean still values decision making that relies on consensus and non-interference. That explains why the new members were influential in drafting the Asean Charter and in maintaining the policy status quo. It is now the tail that wags the dog. The Asean core members are caught in a dilemma. Indonesia and the Philippines, despite their strong voices and advocacy of democracy and human rights, cannot push Burma too far because of the absence of support from other members.
The new Thai government is even worse, as it will back the Burmese junta. Thailand will be the new Asean chair from July, and with the revival of Thaksin's Burmese policy, it means a real nightmare for freedom fighters in Burma. It means that the Burmese junta has does its homework and is confident that in the next three years, it will prevail and continue to suppress its people.
The opposition party, the National League for Democracy, may be annihilated because the international community will not be able to carry out a policy of joint action for long; other more urgent international issues will divert its attention elsewhere.
Asean, China and India must help to ensure that all voices in Burma are heard and taken into consideration. The UN must also increase its pressure, otherwise the generals' strategy will continue to work in their favour, as it has done so far. If that remains the case, it will be a long time before we witness a new Burma that is not totally under the dictators' boots. The only difference with their election promise is that they will get the legitimacy they seek because nobody wants to rock the boat.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/02/21/pda/opinion_30065997.html
